Grain, Farmland, Fisheries,Topsoil

     There are those who say we don't have a population problem, but instead a food (or resource) distribution problem---that our problem would be solved with better distribution.  However, grain production (the staple of the human diet) has been shrinking on a per capita basis since 1984.
     The graph from WorldWatch shows Total World Grain Production increasing annually from 1950 through 2000.  Note however that total grain production in the 50's increased 34%, but only 9% in the 90's. Since world population has doubled in the last 40+ years, per capita  grain production has fallen from 13% to - 7% in the decade of the 90's.

     With arable farmland shrinking every year, how can we keep up with the needs of a world population that will grow from 6 billion today to at least 10 billion in the next 50 years?

     We know that, due to desertification we are losing 3900 square miles of formerly productive land each year. We know that millions of acres of formerly productive farmland are lost each year to human encroachment from urbanization.  We know that 25 billion tons of top soil are lost globally each year due to misuse or overuse of the land.. Yet grain production would have to increase dramatically to supply 4 billion more people in the next 50 years.

     An estimated 950 million people, mostly in low income countries, depend on fish as their primary source of protein. 11 of the worlds 15 major fishing areas and 69% of the world's major fish species are in decline according to the UN Food & Agriculture Organization (FAO). The average size of swordfish  decreased from 264 lbs to 66 lbs during the last 30 years, resulting in a 50% decrease in the number reaching maturity.  Most growth in fishing has come with a shift to species of lower economic value such as sardines and anchovies - thus depleting the food chain. They are typically processed into fish oil and fish meal and are used for aquaculture - a process that cannot continue indefinitely.

     The June, 1998 issue of the ROTARIAN featured an article by Paul Harris Fellow, Norman Borlaug, winner of the Nobel Peace Prize in 1970. Borlaug is known as the Father of the "Green Revolution," which modernized agriculture and increased grain production dramatically around the world. Now 85 years old and living in Africa,  Norman Borlaug is greatly concerned about future food supplies.  Mr. Borlaug says in the Rotarian article:  "World peace will not be built on empty stomachs.  I remain deeply concerned that humankind is being taken to the brink of disaster in hopes that a scientific miracle will save the day at the last moment.  This may happen, but I believe that there can be no lasting solution to the world hunger-poverty problem until a more reasonable balance is struck between food production and human population growth. The efforts of those on the food-production front are, at best a holding operation, which can permit others on the demographic, educational, medical, family planning, and political fronts to launch an effective and humane attack to tame the population monster."